Friday chart:

there was a trade premarket short on the TL formation then break.


after dropping --  uvol-dvol and adv-dec break upward and the 5 min TL breaks as well - allowing a long attempt that is good.

price moves back to the original short area.

Again -- we are looking for the symmetry of TL formation -- go with the line as long as the internals are also moving the same way.

End of day a crazy drop but the 5 min TL had broken and even started to form a 3 touch right before the plummet.

This chart is just the morning bounce trade -- when I'm using 1 min candles still -- noticed the internals turn up and then the TL broke and made a small double bottom.

/tf: 1 min candles for the first 90 min.

I am using 1 min. candles for the first 90 min -- easier to see.   After that, 1 min. candles create too much noise -- and 5 min. candles are better - even if they feel like you can't see the details.

/tf opex Friday, end of qtr craziness

Jun 28

 internals mostly negative ....


was an entry premarket then return back near highs and again - drop to  yesterday's close -- so very inefficient.


half IBD names decent.

Gold dipped o/n but pushed higher --

end of qtr.  -- may see strength into weekend.  Friday opex...   too many reasons to stay high.

/es near 1600 - but above easily.



strong:  OAS, NTES, JAKK, AG, amba, rrts,


also:  XONE, SCTY, gmcr, fslr, mdso, gpor

ad 400
adrl: 100  dropping

tf 979 -- near triple top -- into the weekend   eoq push.

think shorts could get ripped up here...

TL intact   4 touches -- TICK solid.

2;42 -  BreAK === WATCH IT.

NOT READY YET.

regains TL.

no 3 touch TL - hasn't been an hour.

end of day shenanigans.... wow.  

my 5 min TL trend follow system might have gotten you short 10 min. before el plunge-o.

June 27

getting to end of month.


payroll data strong --

/es  blows thru 1600 to 1606  -- at 8:40

IBD names strong.

market may be in a range...   correction talk is premature.


but we're looking for 5 min TL formations then breaks - based on market signals.

/es break this morn. was at 7:30 am -- gotta be up and ready.

/tf -- hit yesterday high TO THE TICK and backs off...    knowing sup/res. can help you nail it.

/tf - breaks ystdy high...


market blazing hot at the open again.

tsla, fslr, scty , gmcr, wdc strong.

10:01 -- adv-dec --  TL break?????  top    1611.50??????

market stalls after 972 --

rules:   1 hour 3 touch pattern min.  for short --

market signals   adv-dec.  dropping , uvol solid

needs time or else more upside.

ad  1315

need to see some serious divergence to take a short here -- one way trade indeed.

/tf  much strong than  /es   /ym -- so you have to respect and follow the signals -- new highs

974  at noon...

975 was target mentioned premarket.

noon:   tf   - clear 5 min TL --   testing it now.  

ad 1267 --


11:55  top?

need 50 min. to confirm.

did not wait for 50 min TL -- therefore -- off plan trades = losers.

975 target hit.

975.7 was 61.8% fib from 999 to 938 -- missed by TWO TICKS

1:58 - TF  cracks  TL -- here --

gold plummets to 1200...

2;09 - TL broken -- 5 min candles printing below --   still waiting for 1 hour at least for dTL to form.

TF - triple touch but it's only been 40 min.  

Market signals are VERY strong.

UD - nhod.  so can't short it.

tf - breaks TL upside.... push.

figured.

long the TL break....   never too high to buy.

adv:  1376

UDrl: nhod

61.8% fib --    value

/tf Trend up day with Fib Retracement levels in play

June 26

/tf -- 110 ticks o/n  top to bottom

.59%  premarket gap UP

/gc  crushed -- dead dead dead.

TSLA, AIG, FSLR, YHOO, DB strong..     xlf looks strongest --


data at 8:30 -- in 2 min.

GDP  1.8%  - slow.... 

qe talk -- pumps it up.

TLT, /zb solid -- fear is gone today.

nearing end of month.


BLOX, EPAM, ILMN --  these are the names.

THRM possibly.

IWM - gap up OVER 50 DAY ma  daily --   !!

/tf --  nhod -- 9:03    964

market loves it -- can't taper with weak GDP.

over 50 day MA resumes uptrend on close above.

5 min TL breaks --  can get you everything you need.
bleh.

Why do traders say they miss trades?  They didn't take it?
And how are professional traders different?

I think pros are rigorous in their routine and plan.  They know what they need to see.  They stick to it. So there's a lot less thinking. 

An amateur spends a lot of time thinking: Should I take this trade?
They also spend a lot of time worried, fearful, bored.  They take early profits because they are worried - it's not part of the plan but their plan is flexible to the point of being arbitrary.  So they don't win much even when they were dead on.  Even when they follow their plan -- or at least the entry part, because they don't follow the other part of letting winners run when there's no exit signal.

If you're struggling, look at what you're doing.  Is it the same plan every day?  Or are you changing things up a little based on little nudges from the twitter feed or a website or news channel.  If you're trading price action -- all these things, your opinions, other people's opinions, are noise.  So you have to have a very clear plan to focus on and you'll automatically ignore noise because it's not showing up in your charts.

 Your plan can be as simple as following TL breaks with some accompanying market signals to confirm the move.  You can have price levels of sup/res. that can help really pinpoint those areas of major support / resistance and allow you to exit easily.

But first, you have to be willing to be consistent.

June 25:

/tf up .74%

China relief.

MPC, VLO - refiners strong ?

DDD, YHOO, TSLA, FSLR, GS, XHB  look solid.

housing data 8:30

LEN - gap up -    xhb solid now.

strong data --  dollar spikes....   /tf /es  pause....

VLO   2.55%
MPC 2.3%  - touched 200 day MA daily ystdy -

NOAH, YY --  china names off the bottomy bottom.

dow  109 pts. gap up start...

/tf - triple touch base  and now 42tick blast -- new highs   9:16

always triple touch kicks off the move.

/tf -- rip into open --  50t off triple touch.  

958.6 is the close from Friday.

rangebounding here -- have to catch the edges -- 3 touch lines


midday trading is simply suckish.  You're getting fucked trying to play this dead zone.

excellent strength - -/tf breaks   3 hour decision wedge

wedge break +backtest...   here we go?   12:44???????

choppy midday --

strong market but  daily downtrend holds it

Decision wedge building  /tf

breaks to upside....  internals support

AD 1700 rising ... stay on

ramp to Friday close -- and 1 tick shy.

Very nice day if you can be patient and wait for the setup.

June 24

gap down

china -5.3% - no big bank save.


/tf  946.6  - starting  here right ON Friday low of the day  -- but holds.

-1.11%

/es  1567 --  below  Fri lod.

long way to go on daily chart to touch fib levels.

STEC +86%  pm.  You never know...

FSLR green.

weak:  aig, tsla, yhoo, amzn, goog

/tf - has already bounced 40t off lows -- plenty of swing.

/es  - actually bounce 10 points off pm lows.

/tf -- 940

-1.8%

dow -200 midday chop

UD - trending lower.


tl establised -- /tf tests...


advrl from   -1600 to -700 -- and over 150 tick bounce.

Best entry was 9 am but there was a chance to play the bounce -- /dx weakness and oversold conditions for a nice swing.   

June 21 4x Fri.

quadruple ex Fri.

/tf - 8 am -- right on  ysterday close.  

/gc  -drop and bounce o/n.

green:  TSLA, ACAD, YHOO, OAS, DB, BAC, FDX, AAPL,



health of the market broke down fast yesterday.  Biggest vol. in SPY, XHB in over a year -- pure downside.  Will require time to heal.

Statistically bounce likely today.

/nq - strongest.

lot of premarket green.

long 2 /nq -- premarket on TL support. 
stopped -2.

/tf RED again. 

/tf - 3rd touch of support line   -.13%   with IBD leaders mostly green -- seems HIGHLY divergent.
8:39 am.

955.5 entry -- 10t stop.

internals weakening -- but quite firm -- bulls in control

ad  +1000

don't get too bearish. 

JNK, IYR, EEM green.

but IYT red still


Daily market in downtrend --  sell rip market.

/tf - breaks wedge -- and 950 is new support --       AD slides to negative.

wedge break + small backtest -- classic entry

use 1 min candles for first hour.

/tf - breaks DT


key risk management -  expect to be right , right away.  Therefore -- stop is tight!

midrange entry with   AD  near flat = no trade.

into midday chop - -game just got a lot harder.... have to recognize -- lay off midday

internals take it to new lows

951 breaks

ad -100

ad -200

midday into opex close -- poor environment


midday -- triple bottom /tf -- then news from fed --

/es ramps back to   closing ystdy. price.

/tf  breaks 5 min tl -- forms flag .... entry of flag b/o --- 60 ticks off bottom - leads to 55 MORE ticks from this midrange pattern entry.

and /tf  back to 960 -- top of morning range.

fast ramp.  tick, ad, UD support.

DOLLAR is now perfectly  inverse correlated to market - good indicator.


internals go positive --  /tf back to 960.5 -- to the tick high -- and hovering near unch. - probably for rest of day.

/es hovering at unch. level.  

IYT, XHB red --- not good

mixed signals at 2:45 -- absolutely no way -- no decent R:R even if a pattern developed.

3 pm - big spike UD -- may be a push to 96 pin -- entry for 20 ticks attempt.

AD - flat
ADrl - 330   could push... to unch.

and 20 ticks.

triple top 960.5ish.

triple top --

JNK, XHB, IYT red.

dollar pops

/tf  back to unch.

got as high as old resistance area on 1 hour ch.  broke the triple top - just stop hunt.


Some classic entries for the patient investor.

June 20 - DOW -353

Sometimes you can get a great short even when the market is already down a lot.


You wait for all the signals to line up.

If AD is rising... then wait it out -- you'll eventually see the synchronicty in the form of a TL or double top/bottom... alerting you to the edges (and hence, where to place a stop).

Midday is nearly always a difficulty choppy time.

The eventual plummet - which was obvious due to extreme AD reading, resolved just after 2 pm and gave you everything you were looking for fast and easy.  Did you stay out until then?

Do you have the patience to wait for the set up?

June 20:

gap down post FED.


SPY  gaps down BELOW 50 DAY MA  DAILY.

Major breakdown.

/gc down 82 points!

/tf  970 -- triple bottom at 9 am.

-1.2%

EEM -2%

9:05 - vol. dump   /tf


uvol-dvol -  lower all day --  major capitulation.

XHb loses TL since Nov.

SPY / QQQ loses 50 day MA daily.

correction mode again.

LGND - 14%  winner.

horrible horrible weakness.

Market keeps repeating itself.  Endless cycle of dashed dreams.

June 19 - Wed, Fed Day

/tf - climbs to Tues. highs... forms triple top.

/cl over 99 -- massive uptrend.

more good news for BA.

ATRO raging on daily - aerospace.



When I see ppl predicting prices - I stop following  -- waste of time.

When I see ppl acting like doctors, diagnosing strength and sickness of the market via critical signals -- I am very interested.  This is what we are: doctors of finance.  We observe the patient and make our recommendations based on observation and then test to see whether the medicine is correct.

premarket chop near highs from yesterday... 

/tf fills gap - touches  ystdy close - bounce hard.

/ym now trading below ysty close.

/nq - strongest market.

/tf - FLAT  to the tick...      gonna be a snooze day until 2 pm.

/es - broke yesterday highs by 1 tick this morning before going it all back... red now.

FDX beat.

/ym - that was some wild sloppy o/n moves.  

VVUS????    in play for sure.

futures at ystdy close levels -- very flat... waiting on Fed.

VVUS in play.

nq/ym green

/tf  991.50 --  support hit - broke -- bottom?

internals getting worse..   stay out.

chart later.

June 18: pre Fed day.

Once again - ramp overnight to yesterday highs -- and beyond.


/tf pushing to 990

and just takes out ystdy highs at 5:50 - backs down 30 ticks.

Have to be willing to responsively enter  double tops/bottoms in this market -- b/os are failing -- reversing quickly.

Algos willing to let things run but not the usual entry.

/zb   - new lows....   rates rising.  Direct correlation now = usually bearish.


IWM leading -- risk on.
weak /zb does not matter so far.

anticipate range day?  Look for the edges.   5:50 am already the top.



adv-deck 575
IBD leaders strong

nq, es ym  stronger than /tf  --

Fed tomorrow.

advrl  1240 --

low volume ramp.  Have to be willing to go with it.  

advrl - trending down at 3:05 --   rainbow?

Two possible entries -- the responsive entry for the whole enchilada and the safe one.

Super low volume today.

Strong internals.  Don't be a hero.  When the herd buys, just say moo and buy.

3 main futures trades:

1.  Triple touch on a 2 - 5 day chart -- enter responsively on major TL touch for a big swing.

2. Wedge b/o -- going with the herd after decision wedge builds up.  Works when Market Signals are trending in direction of b/o.

3. Double bottoms -- these can occur out of nowhere.  Also responsive entry -- works if you are going WITH Market Signals -- but obviously - you are taking location and hoping it sticks so almost a countertrade entry.



If the entries are correct, the stop outs will be for 10ticks max and usually lowered to b/e half the time.




adv-dec  dripping all day after gap up open.

fake b/os and b/d today -- just a whipsaw midday -- market gaming the gamers.

ADVrl-DECrl --  dropping all day -- so no surprise it double bottoms and keeps going.   Direction matters more than value.

We only make money guessing direction correctly.  If we start high and drop lower - it's down. 

/tf: inside out day, near gap fill, sharp bounce to TL

June 17: Monday

/tf   gap up 1.1%  to  987.2

up: NFLX, AIG, BAC, TSLA, SCTY, GOOG, AMZN, SODA, GMCR

watch financials...  -- very strong.


all indices above 50 day MA -- don't overthink the uptrend. It's an uptrend.


Focus on /tf -- the   sup/res. levels.

The Market Signals.

8:52:  5 min  TL test   /tf --   holding on.  

$5 bil POMO today -- helping??

/tf  1%  gap up.

gap fill: 977ish.

Your system must allow a way for winners to stay on and run.

/tf - small decision wedge builds now.

after a wedge break -- the stop must be at least the break or backtest -- not the TL down.


flatish day...

Things that Make You Not CP

1. Focusing on too many markets.

Why?  Easy to get distracted, bored.


2. Taking non-plan trades.

Why?  Getting impatient.  Getting impulsive.

3. Taking profits too early.

Why?  Impatient.  Fear of giving back.


Impatience. Fear. 

Is there really anything more?  Either we're bored... and make mistakes: overtrade, take excessive risk, oversize...

or we don't take trades/exit early:  becoming far too risk-adverse when it finally is time not to do so. 


This is the self-mastery part of the game.  You push through feelings of boredom by going over the plan... researching... but you cannot deviate from a set plan/pattern.

You must also stop yourself from ending trades too early, limiting every big winner into a tiny winner. 

When you conquer impatience and fear... everything will fall into place.  But it starts with becoming highly self-aware during the trading day and not merely afterward.  You are not the same person trading as at night.  So develop a monitor for yourself along with market signals. 

June 14: Fri

Possibilities are:

Enter at good location -- on a TL  sup/resistance -- if the internals look like they'll hold the line.

Wait for a breakout of a pattern of an hour or more duration.  Again, internals need to be moving in direction of b/o.

Today, /tf established clear TL at 10 am -- so very long TL to work with on mixed internals.

The next set up was hours later... a decision wedge builds and the declining internals tell you to look for a break down which occurs.

The target was the 50% fib of the entire 2 day move -- in fact, /tf pushed past this level.

If you didn't take the target then you are holding with a stop at the 5 min TL which takes you out around 976.4 which was -- coincidentally enough the 50% fib retrace area pretty much to the tick anyway.

Advrl-declrl at entry was over -1000

/tf: will set up every day, are you patient enough to wait for it?

June 13

/tf hits support overnight  -- same level as 5 days ago - TO THE TICK

reverses overnight -- back up/THROUGH yesterday close - gap fill and beyond to green now.

testing Tuesday LOW again which should be a very powerful resistance area.

shorted 972.4 -- 13t stop -- at major resistance -- blowing thru...  wow

and stopped.  Paper trading failure.

rule #1:  Can't trade premarket -- it can run too far on low vol.  Character is different.

972.6 now briefly acting as SUPPORT -- premarket - anything can happen.

need a structure to work with...


two types of days:  Range, Trend.


ad 400+
slx, iyr, iyt, jnk, xlf, rth green -- bounce day...

ad 1070   Squeeze -- going vertical.   Everyone leaned too far.

internals getting stronger - no reason to think fade.

Rules:  need 1 hour pattern minimum to  begin a trend worth entering.  Thus -- can't fade first breaks.



and 984.2 --  HOURLY TL HIT. 


through 990

why?  internals were insanely bullish and increasing.

xlf, jnk, xhb green at the start -- signalling underlying strength.

Clear trendline had developed over several hours premarket -- establishing clear buyers back in control.

No reason to second guess the market --  all trades are simply flo riders... until a stop.  You don't know and today -- it was simply all up...   just like yesterday was all trend down.... Pays to stay with trend. 

mistakes

getting caught up in the micro...


Overwhelming negative signals... Just had to see the clear lines on 5 min candles... stay with the bigger intraday pic.  -- short the failures....


This was a layup - you read the market well, but you thought you could outsmart it.  You merely want to align yourself with what is happening then the trades will come to you.  If there's a question of which way to go -- then there is no trade.

If it's not 100% clear, there's no trade.

June 12

futures up slightly after IBD announces 'correction mode'.

/tf  987 -- almost to yesterday HoD

/cl flat
TSLA, YHOO green
FSLR  down 6.3% offering?

CLVS offering - -2%
AAPL up slightly.

BAC  .76%

/tf .62%  not bad.

mortgage appl.  up strongly.   People refi ing to the hilt.

CTB  buyout $35/share -- another one.

TSLA  pt 118... sure why not?

premarket -- sloppy, no consensus, rarely synch as traders mostly watch. 

/cl did cleanly double top to the the tick 95.66   (66!) that's about it.

/tf forming TLd.

indecisive market -- may see a wedge form in first hour as market slowly makes up mind which way to slide.


/cl - takes out double top --  stop buster action -- nothing else.

strong: AMBA, BLOX, DDD, GOOG, YHOO.  

/es  perfect triple top at 9:06

The secret ingredient to CP is not the plan, it's the trader and his/her psychology.  It's you.  It's always been you.


Touched ystdy high at open....

filled gap.....   bounced.

RANGE -- just technicals here.  


Easy easy today.

brief moment of symmetry reveals all

June 11

I'm looking for symmetry, synchronicity which lasts only for a brief moment but provides complete clarity -- allowing large rewards with tiny risk. 

If the symmetry breaks against you - there's no reason to give the trade room.

There is the added clues of the market signals / market context to tell you which way may be the right direction, but ultimately, let the charts first create the symmetry -- you merely react to the breaks or the 3rd touch.  You don't have to anticipate it - just watch for it.

/tf: Several quality synchs today.

June 10

tickers to consider:   THRM, WETF, OCN, LOPE, VRTU, SFUN, PERI, AMBA, LGND, CLMT


-/tf - just breaks  Fri  hod --

/es  breakout

/cl slightly lower
/gc  lower

Japan - 4% move overnight on stimulus... b.s.

DB 1.9%  -- big time rush.

GOOG, AMZN - -breakouts.

IYT - back through TL -- needs to confirm today.


note  /tf  >  /es -- RISK ON -- different than Fri. when /ym led.

/tf   target   996.1 -- since  1 HOUR TL  broke  premarket -- strength OOOZING out.


Missed a layup entry:

June 7

Only take the good trades.

June 6, Thursday.

premarket solid.

Missed first entry - breakout of o/n flat range for 30 ticks...   not taking entries is expensive -- went right to 974 target and quickly reversed.   Perfect read.... failure to execute.  

/cl refusing to go down.

SODA rumors.

strong: cfn, ddd, tsla, aegr, clvs
DB  1.5%

Z-day? 

healthcare names appear strong again.

tried a long 2x stopped
3rd time -- after TL break.

/zb sinking
IBD names strong  -- context is correct.

I think I just need to take a deep breath and pray.


Support/Res. levels have to be REAL LEVELS based on previous support. 

I will be cp starting today.
NOW.

Early is wrong. Always.

I'm responsible for my own success.

/cl --  up 1% -- won't quit.

switched to paper trading after losses.

first paper trade: +18  of course.

2nd trade for 4   +22 on paper.

/cl ....   +47ticks on paper.

Amazing.

market dying.



What happens is noise.... noise .... noise... fuzzy... clarity -- MOVE --- noise... noise noise.  It's the moment of clarity -- because it has to happen and then you'll get the move. 

/TF: patterns emerge and then the path is clear, briefly

June 5: wednesday: ADP data

5:26 am: weakness.

Japan market down 3%.

/tf   980 -- already established 3 touch descending TL o/n.

tf 977.3 --  nice little bounce -- created a 3 touch TL. at 7:05 - and a quick 20 tick drop.  Good synchronicity entry.

/gc - breaks TL - now emerging uptrend.

jobs #s a miss by 30k --- /tf rising though after initial drop.

/gc -  had broken out PRE NUMBERS -- NOW CONTINUING.  

/tf -- choppping around -- taking out early traders with the tight stops -- feeding the algos.

costs drop...  + more QE may make for chop -- especially since we start  gap down on top of a down day with $NAMO -31  -- no gimme shorts.  You gotta earn it.

weak IBD:  fslr, tsla, ddd, aig, nflx, goog, 


strong: ADNC - news, partnership
AMBA -- er beat.
CYBX - er beat.


market under pressure,
AD -1600

You need to see  A LOT of confirmation for a long.  Nobody is going to hold on unless there's something to sink ur teeth into.

tf 969.7 --   

ad -1722   staying out.

ad  -1900

keeps going lower so stay out.

Trying to get cute will always cost you.

Look for synch.

/tf  50% retrace  of today's move.  AND STOPS RIGHT THERE.  974

974

ud hits new lows before 2 pm bernanke --  looks very weak....

look for synch -- symmetry.  Otherwise you are waiting.

FASCINATING DAY.

I look for symmetry.  It's dynamic and always evolving. 

Super weak day
AD -1914 at the close.

IBD names stomped.

Correction continues.   Not surprising.

June 4th. TUESDAY.

"uptrend under pressure" - IBD

/tf breaks the 5 min TL premarket -- after all, it's Tuesday.

I'm using more IBD sources to focus on strong stocks.

fnma -11%

strong: thz, ddd, kors, tsla, aig, gmcr, nflx, PERI, aapl, mnkd,

/tf just about to touch yesterday hod.  premarket power.

DB 1.9%
EWJ 3.3%
/zb red
/gc red
AIG ok.

I recently tried Dan Zanger's chat room.  It's okay.  You can get the gist of his advice for free just by following him on Twitter.  There's no magic formula for success.

once again drug names dominating the movers list.

INFI   +9%   after -39% yesterday.   defended.

3 pivots already...   Pivot Entry -- dynamic....  always shifting -- can't be automated.

got a few moves...


12:19  trouble, trouble, trouble.

/tf  nlod.


I think if I trade with 1 min candles until about 1 pm - then switch to 5 min -- it's better.  Stay focused but then -- need to take a slightly wider view as bigger sup/res. lines develop and show themselves.


/tf  into the 5 min TL --  1:21 - weird time of day.

ad  improves to -540

iyt, xlf red.   Seems like a fight to the upside.

No  5 min. base formation intraday to rely on.

/zb regains 5 min TL ....    another p/b coming.

PERI -- green all day


ad  -1000

/tf  977.5 --  sinks after TL touch.

-1148 ad

look for recent lows....  975ish.

PERI -- this is going to be a leader eventually.

 Look for synchronicty.  There you find the high reward set ups.

You could have predicted the bottom to the tick with Synchronicty

And intraday TL spots:

/tf: The bounce end of day high was 50% of day's range: perfect Fib

Location location location.

June 3

premarket green.

A lot of bearish signals including Hindenberg Omen.

/zb keeps dumping.

Many strong drug names.

KERX, LGND, PCYC, VRX, ISIS, MNKD.

INFI -15% -- bad news.

DB 1.7%

super whipsaw action today.....

/tf touches the low of Friday to the tick -- runs 130 ticks straight up....  woot.

crazy day.

Note the clear TLs formed.   Don't play in the middle.  Play the locations.

Have to maintain a wider perspective to catch the synch.

1:15:  ad  -1230

This is trend down power.  Not seeing much improvement.

Euro etfs are green though... /zb falling off.

Some IBD names doing okay --

Need a key time -- might be a 3:30 run but not until end of day most likely.   Too much techn. dmg. on daily chart now.

WEDGE forming here....   very clear on 5 min. ch.


Missed the close... beautiful to see.