Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Another Day, Another Dollar (Demise)

You can't keep a good fiat currency up, can you?

Today I was in liquidation mode.  My signal came from $GS which gapped up, closed lower, my guess is there will be numerous 'bearish engulfing' candlesticks -- you can see all the print here:


My guess is there will be a lot more bearish candlestick patterns tonight.  But let's face it, the robots are in charge, and you can't fight fiat currency destruction.  The market has to go up just to stay even.

The other news that caught my eye was the weak 3-year auction.  The whole game is over if the Fed can't sell debt.  So every failed auction is another step toward the abyss.  When you're running a $1 trillion deficit, you don't want your creditors getting cold feet.  That just won't do.  If the market has to drop a bit to drum up interest in "flight to safety" toilet paper, then it'll have to drop.

 Overall, it's hard to get a read on the macro-economy.  Maybe it's better than we all think.  But more than likely, the market, always a short-term machine, has been held hostage to short term investors that keep the virtuous cycle alive.  It's all good until it's not.  But I don't want to be all in when things go fachakta.

 I sold most of my CSGH over 2.  It was a good run.
 I added more INSM
 I added a little more LPIH  (down, broke support... yikes)
 I sold most of my LLFH (3rd time I swung this for money, I own this ticker)
 I sold the PACR (lost less than $100 instead of a big $1000 stop out)

 But here's my favorite:  I bought 200 FAZ today and even though it wasn't much money -- I dumped it for 1.10 gain.  Yes, I traded FAZ for a nice profit and that my friends, is quite incredible for a guy like me.  I read the market correctly today.

 That said, I am bearish regarding tomorrow and for all I know, the market will blast higher.  I bought a big SDS position for my managed account (Mom) and also hold FAZ for her.

 Overall, today was a good day, I hold lots of cash now and I feel good about it.  I don't own any 'stupid' positions like PACR/GIGM.  Just my favorites.

  I hope everyone out there had a great day.  I'm sure you did better than me (I).  But hey, we're all in this together.

 Remember: goal of the week -- patience.

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