Wednesday, October 14, 2009

I Would Trade 10,000 Dow, And I Would Trade...

Well, there we go again.  Another benchmark broken again.  Two steps forward, 800 steps backward, a few giant leaps forward on the back of a broken dollar, and it's all good.

I'd be a bit more cheerful but somehow, my portfolio was down today.  I just had the wrong combo of microcaps.

What's irksome is I run a mock portfolio at tickerspy here:

And my fake portfolio was up 6%.  How's that?  It's weird how well I can do when it's not real money.  And my managed account was also up.  So hip hip hooray.

The past week I have been using charts well and I feel like another piece of the puzzle regarding my ultimate trading strategy has slipped into place.  Like APWR -- I had bought a big fat position for my Mom one day before today's move.  Now obviously, almost everything went up -- but APWR was up 8% so I really picked a great one.  On the terrible side, I sold CHIO even though I charted that as a break out chart and missed a 50% move.  Kind of annoying.  I listened to someone I trusted, who I'm sure was correct.  But the point being -- the chart is the ultimate judge and jury of your wins and losses.  When in doubt, trust the chart.  That's lesson #4532.

Today's tape has the feel of more upside but the thing to look forward is a weak finish.  For example, MYST.ob is one I had a small position in and it's run almost 100% in the past few days.  I sold the entire position in my managed account but I bet it has at least one more day of big gains.  There was no weakness in the tape.  Meanwhile, it was clear that CSGH.ob topped out days ago.   CSGH.ob is actually interesting because I think it's going to find support soon and possibly bounce.

Well, I'm tired and Glee is on soon.  Congrats if you hit it big.

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