Thursday, October 8, 2009

Arrogance Meter

If you follow a lot of people like me, you've probably come across a few "arrogant bastards" that kind of tick you off sometimes.  They love to talk about how great they are -- especially on big win days.

 Well, they're usually great and they have something to teach all of us.  However, one thing I look for is when the Arrogance spikes to a certain level -- it's time to get cautious.  The key to success in the markets is humility.  You are no better than anyone else.  And when great traders get arrogant -- they are liable to make huge mistakes.  There comes a time when some traders think they'll never make a mistake again.

 Today the Arrogance Meter was off the charts.

 Now notice what's happening into the close.  Yep, pretty damn weak.  The craptastic leaders like AIG, GS, FNM and even AAPL (great co) are all red.  Are you sure you want to follow Arrogant Winners long and strong tomorrow?  I don't.  Look, I did just fine thanks to LPIH.ob, but tomorrow I could get defaced.

 The dollar got blasted to shit today -- of course commodities are going to rally.  But we're at very depressed levels here.  The Fed still has debt to sell.  Lots of it.  They can let the dollar sink -- but it can't drop this fucking fast every day.  Pardon my French.  That's not going to do at all.  Tomorrow, I wonder, how are commodity investors going to feel with a bouncing dollar?  They're just going to let today's monster profits sit there and let someone else take them?

 Or maybe I'm totally wrong.  I probably am.  Today was a curious day.  SPY closed with a doji.  Indecision there.  All I'm saying is...  when you're full of ego, chance are you're not paying as close attention as you should be.  When the money's rolling in, I suggest you be more cautious, not less.  Tomorrow might not be the same.

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