Thursday, October 8, 2009

Oh, the Humana(ty)

I ran a DCF analysis...

I assumed 3% growth the next 10 years... I shaved $7 off their book value.  I plugged in $3 earnings  (estimates are for over $6 this year).  I still get fair value of $47 assuming these horrific estimates...

I bot HUM.  It makes no sense not to own it.

The market is taking a very short term view of this company.  They just can't lose money fast enough to justify the current price.

 They'd have to earn around .80/share this year to justify the current price.  That means they have to show huge losses for the rest of the year because they made a lot more than that last q.  If someone can justify 35.89 as a fair price -- I'd love to hear it.  The margin of safety is enormous here.  You have to give when the market is pricing companies on political news that assume impossible scenarios.

Another point:  How hard can you squeeze health insurers?  Everyone calls them greedy but profit margins are less than 3% for HUM.  There's not a whole lot of fat to cut here.

 Obviously today's action is understandable... people want to be in what works today.  Which is oil services.  Problem is, I don't think oil services with OIH at 122 is going to work tomorrow.  So I'm skating where the puck is going.  But it feels like crap.

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