Thursday, January 10, 2013

Jan. 10

Lost power --- trying to catch up.

So far a reversal day -- possibly gravestone doji on Daily Chart.

ADVN-DECN  starts at  +1534  now under +200

gold / gold miner  WOKE UP.  That's good for me.

DECK pleasantly green.

AAPL under 520.

slow selling.  This day was not unexpected.

/tf  now -.36%   hitting new lows... at 11:15

/es green -- so risk appetite way off.

/tf - breaking intraday TL  but would need to see double bottom confirmation -- too weak to simply buy the b/o today.

I keep looking at the daily charts -- and they keep me from trying to get long....  we need a real pullback here to alleviate overbought conditions.

URBN -- worst store ever  at 52 week high...    can't understand it.  DECK should be at 50 if this is for real.

Remember:  Relative Strength.

/es came out of wedge and was always outperforming  /tf  -- and /es  ran 4 pts.  but /tf did not.  Know your relative strength on dip buys.

End of day recap:

Notice how /tf ramped back to breakeven  ... but as I mentioned, /es was clearly demonstrating superior relative strength and it closed up much stronger.

The wedge break in /es was good for 13 points if you just held it with a trailing stop.

Each day, assessing relative strength is one of the primary goals.  I managed to catch HAS for .88 (and it closed another .30 higher from my exit) because I noticed it was acting super strong off a wedge breakout on the daily chart. 

Relative strength gets you into the movers and keeps you from entering weakness too early.

Today was a reminder to avoid /tf and perhaps look for the same wedge break entries on /es which was acting better.   I mostly avoid /gc and /cl because they behave much differently, extremely volatile and you can't use such tight stops.

Anyway -- I was out most of the day so I can't say much.  It's nice to be a bull. 

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