Wednesday, January 30, 2013

the big breaks:

/gc  broke its downtrend 2 days ago.

Now today -- big spike on GDP data -- market was once again 2 days early -- all you had to do was follow the charts... it's that simple.

You get stopped out along the way but the winners -- like the /gc move this morning will more than pay for the jiggles which is a part of doing business.

/es  stophunts below 1500

/gc break occurs 2 days before major pop to fib level

Gold chart worth studying.

The lesson is: Watch for the breaks, because a lot of times, that's the big signal.  Holding through the drop is pointless.  Once you see the break after an oversold market - it's easy money with no heat.

Balanced open...

905  /tf   

IYT, XLF red.     tech strong... aapl, amzn, gmcr, cree, gold

/tf - ystdy low -- TO THE TICK

covered +28t.  (should have held out for 900 breach)...

long 900.9 --  internals diverge.   bounce?   9t stop.

stupid long - -need a double bottom pattern to attempt a real countertrade.

long /tf  triple bottom -- DIVERGENCE in the signals. 898.9 entry
 flat  for 11 ticks....

30 ticks total.  One mistake.  should be 40.

DECK --  broke TL with vol.  heading up?

and -- /tf - climbs to just below ystdy low -- and drops back down... chop until Fed 2:15 likely - -good time to take a break.

11:30  europe close -- brings a 30tick ramp.

small double bottom right before 5/34 xover -- same old pattern

11:40 --  signals  TURN bearish    short  in 902

IWM -- over 10 day MA -- remember -- still a bull market.

flat.    31 ticks total.

FOMC meeting time.

UD -- weak
AD -500
TICK flat
vix  3.8%

/tf  900 -- hovering under ysterdy's lows...  bearish.

If I were a betting man I'd say big swings take out stops both directions then flat...   lot of noise.

14:11  --  BULL SIGNAL push?  coming?   - no action into Fed.

/tf    double bottom low - - 
AD - does not make new low
TICK bullish diverge....  gotta cover

if unsure -- default to prevailing  signals --  Bears in control -- they win 'standstill' flattish markets -- like now...  market keeps keeling over.

All Signals register new lows...

/tf  breaks 898 --   need to follow Signals when flat.

/tf  sandbagged on strong selling...  896 --   5/34  MAs kept you ok

Signals - new lows...

only triple or double bottoms allow entry  against  5/34 mas.  AND with a Signal Divergence.

2:57:  minor bullish divergence
    /tf -- still under      - not enough to warrant a long.

15;06   Signal Bull Push --
/tf  does not budge though

/tf - new lows..

AD, UD confirms

AD  -950

/tf 895 -- must stay short.

894 - would be target - completes a rainbow

15 min candles /tf --  TL break - retest to 903 - and then down...

IWM - almost 5 day rainbow complete.

894 --  on AD -1000     trend down...   this was technically a gimme of a day.

try  long at 3:30 - on bounce at major support for 15 ticks...

Signals small bullish.

-- need a small double/trip bottom first?  YES.  That's the fucking rule, right?   lol.

Papertrading retard.

The first rule of trading is follow your rules.
The second rule of trading is follow your rules.
The third rule of trading is don't forget rules 1 and 2.

QQQ - first day close below 20 day MA in 2013.

Need to attack the market with your attitude and your plan... not worry about maybes... The plan gets you in and out and it incorporates small losses.  Just trade the plan.  Less psychic stress.

Internals  getting WORSE

/tf  892

Bulls in shock.   Trend on DAILY CHART threatened.

QQQs -- bear market
IWM -- weak  --  88.11 musthold.

strong TICK divergence

/tf - touches  TL   893.5

Internals DO NOT confirm up move.

/tf - 2 main entries and one small long were the way to play it.

/tf: two breaks for big swings

See the 5 min/5day chart too.  /tf  was bouncing on a rising TL -- today it broke in the morning and that first pennant was the last gasp -- after that -- one could have been anticipating a major shift since the last 5 days of bounce on the rising TL no longer worked.

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