Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Tues Jan 8:

futures a bit weak premarket.

I started the day with a short on /cl after a nice 3 bump topping pattern -- bought AFTER the TL break and picked up 18 ticks with no heat.  7:35 am entry.  This is exactly what I love to look for and it was served up for me as soon as I logged in.

AAPL  up 1%  -- could pick up /nq a lot.
MON +4% on earnings

DDD continues -- story stock of 2012/13
CRUS - continuing -- was strong yesterday.  

I almost never trade premarket because light vol. can lead to sudden big moves against you.

870.3  /tf  is the lowside target (yesterday's low) - an important target area to consider.

878.7 is high (for the year) and the resistance area to beat. 

/cl - drops to 93.34 which was my original target idea for 30 ticks -- must be willing to hold LONGER - allow patience to pay for correct trades.  The low of 93.3 was almost perfect  61.8% fiblevel.

/zb -- breaking out -- this is bearish for equities ....

/zb strong 

advn  -180    not terrible --  rangebound again?

-700 advn-decn    /tf  drops to 870    IWM  breaks 15 min TL....  pullback has begun.

/tf  dips under 870 ---   Trend Down day developing.   /cl  100 tick range now...  full rainbow and more.

/tf -- well -  there's a major gap to fill and after that -- the market can really turn up -- no reason to get long with such a major technical magnet to overcome.

My instinct says  trying to get long today will be a lesson in pain and futility.

tried paper /tf long on TL break but the Internals were clear -- the trend is down --

Trend Day rules -- stay in trade as long as possible -- use  5/34 xover as signal.

advn-decn  -800    supports lower prices.

/tf 868.1 --  at 11:30    4 ticks above a major FibLevel and double support bottom (low from 2 days ago)

/tf -- close to 5/34 xover -- but not quite.

/tf -- so  TL broken -- but does the market just completely retrace with ADVN-DECN -700  would be impressive...

OUT FOR AFTERNOON -- expect very tight range consolidation here for at least an hour.

choppy chop afternoon -- time to exercise

afternoon choppy -- mostly slow grind up.  Good for 15 tick moves.   But last hour coming up.

advn-decn -402   not much strength.  

872 is a VPOC area.

advn-decn  -278   improving into close....   872  touch. /tf

gold actually looks good here.  GDXJ was green almost all day. 

sloppy close here -- going for 10 or 15 ticks pays -- holding out means giving back.  This was obvious as the advn-decn improved dramatically...  I see a lot of mixed signals but advn-decn did stay negative all day -- hence the weakness.  So if you sense the market is mostly mixed... it pays to take profits at minor support/resistance rather than hold for the 5/34 xover which can mean giving back a  lot of movement. 

Two kinds of mistakes
1) Not taking a trade - fear
2) Taking impulsive trades -- boredom, thrill-seeking

Struggling traders need to identify if they are making more of one or the other (or perhaps both).  Identifying which of these mistakes you make the most will help you immensely.   The next step is to interrupt the pattern/thought process as it occurs and replace it with a new, positive habit.

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