Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Tues. 15th Notes

weak overnight session

/tf  -.68    871.90  at 7:15 am

/zb up
gold strong
/cl down
/es  -.34

AAPL 501

/tf -- the Downtrend Line formed yesterday all day leads to overnight selloff.  871 breached.
LULU -6% miss
ZNGA / FB strong

advn-decn  -1400 to  -500   huge gap fill after the open -- AAPL under 490...
gold strong.

/tf - BREAKS   DOWN TL --- breakout -- but Market Signals hardly confirm strength.  

/tf --  -340  advn-decn  but GREEN -- hugely frustrating day for your average trader -- outperforming with other indices red.  

major triple top   11:36  --  3 day chart.

advn-decn -202 and   /tf  up .22%   to triple top -  and STILL strong

IYT, OIH, banks strong.      Market is very positive.  Open was a massive bear trap.

/tf -- have to watch the relative strength -- this was a bad short idea.   AAPL doesn't matter.

today's mistakes:

I tried to short a strong market  /tf
I tried to get long a very weak market.  AAPL

These are common rookie trading errors and I slipped back. I even lowered my stop several times and did not override this act.  I did it because I didn't want to accept being wrong.    It feels easy to short something that looks overbought / vv.  but I always pay dearly for this lapse in judgement.  Trading is about riding strong trends (for me).  I rarely make money fading strong trends and yet I often find I have lost my self-control and discipline and gone with what feels right.  Feelings will kill you as often the correct trade is the one that feels the most wrong.  My charts are right in front of me and here I am, thinking that I am right and the market is wrong.    This  mistake stems from my feeling that I am smart.  Thinking you are smarter than the market always leads to losses.  So learn from this.  It feels bad. 

I need to learn to :

1) accept that I am wrong
2) trust my system
3) monitor my emotions better - override impulsive, contrary trades.

As I speak, /tf is running to NEW HIGHS -- more shorts are learning the lesson.  You can't fight a trend and you never should.

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